25 States Are ‘At A Tipping Point’ For Covid-19, Per Brown University Risk-Assessment Map

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he delta variant of the Covid-19 virus has brought the United States back to transmission levels of six months ago, before vaccines were widely available to most of the population.

Heading into this weekend, the Brown School of Public Health’s risk-assessment map shows 25 red-colored states. Half the states in the country are recording an average of 25 or more new daily cases per 100,000 people. Health officials deem communities with that level of transmission to be “at a tipping point.”

The speed at which the virus is spreading has been staggering. Three weeks ago, the risk-assessment map featured three red states. Two weeks ago, there were seven states in the red. Last week, there were 14.

MORE: See Last Week’s State-By-State Rankings

Here are the 10 states with the highest community spread of Covid-19 in the U.S., according to data from the Brown School of Public Health.

1. Florida

For the past month, Florida has been the epicenter of the “pandemic of the unvaccinated.” If the Sunshine State were a country, it would be no. 3 in the world for its infection rate, behind only St. Barts and Martinique.

Florida is currently recording an average of 132.2 new daily Covid-19 infections per 100,000 people, according to Brown University data. That’s a 37% jump in one week, following a 59% jump the previous week. Florida’s transmission rate is five times the threshold of what health officials consider a “very high” rate of spread. Fewer than half of Floridians are fully vaccinated.

Despite all of this, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s executive order remains in place banning local governments from requiring face masks. The city of Palm Beach and the counties housing Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Orlando have all mandated masks inside government buildings in defiance of DeSantis. Last week, Disney World returned to an indoor mask mandate.

The current level of transmission is of concern to people cruising out of Florida, which is home to the three largest cruise ports in the United States. Thanks to DeSantis’s much-hyped but unpopular law banning so-called vaccine passports, cruise lines are prohibited from requiring passengers sailing from Florida to show proof of their vaccination status.

2. Louisiana

Every county in Louisiana is now in the red zone. With an average of 96.6 new daily Covid-19 cases per day per 100,000 people — an 18% jump since last week, following a 73% increase the previous week — Louisiana holds on to its no. 2 position for virus spread in the country. Only 37.2% of the state’s residents are fully vaccinated, a slight improvement since last week.

Two weeks ago, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell issued an indoor mask advisory as Covid-19 cases surged in the city. This week, Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards ordered all Louisianans to mask again indoors, as the state tallies more than 2,200 hospitalized patients with Covid, a pandemic record.

3. Oklahoma

Oklahoma jumped up one position to the no. 3 slot this week. In the Sooner State, an average of 79.4 new Covid-19 cases are recorded every day per 100,000 people — a 42% jump in seven days, following a 58% increase the previous week. Only 40% of the state’s population is fully vaccinated, virtually no improvement from a week ago.

Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt has called on Oklahomans to wear masks in public but rejected calls for a state mandate. Local mask mandates in the largest cities, Oklahoma City and Tulsa, ended last spring.

4. Arkansas

Arkansas fell one position this week, to no. 4. Heading into this weekend, Arkansas is logging an average of 69.5 new Covid-19 cases every day per 100,000 people, which is a jump of 19% since last week, following an increase of 35% the previous week.

Only 41.8% of Arkansans are fully vaccinated — but that’s a big improvement from 36.2% last week.

This week, Governor Asa Hutchinson reversed his previous position on masks, saying that he now regrets a statewide ban on face mask mandates. The governor has called a special session of the state legislature to amend the law. “In hindsight, I wish that had not become law,” Hutchinson said during a news conference.

5. Mississippi

Mississippi remains at no. 5 for the second week running. The state is currently recording an average of 68.1 new daily Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people, which is a 42% jump since last week, following a big 62% increase the previous week. Only 34.8% of Mississippians are vaccinated.

The lack of response from Mississippi’s governor during this crisis prompted the state’s second largest newspaper to ask, “Where is Tate Reeves?”

6. Alabama

Alabama bumps up one position to no. 6 this week. Despite Governor Kay Ivey saying two weeks ago that “it’s time to start blaming the unvaccinated folks” for the Covid surge, only 34.6% of the state’s population is fully vaccinated, a very slight improvement since last week. Alabama is recording an average of 56.6 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people — a massive 63% jump since last week.

7. Missouri

While the transmission rate is still on the rise in Missouri, the Show Me State managed to drop one spot in the last week. The state is currently recording 48.5 new daily Covid-19 infections per 100,000 people, which is up 19% in the past week, following an 11% increase the previous week. Only 41.8% of Missouri residents are fully vaccinated, a slight uptick since last week.

Despite the Covid surge, Republican state officials have blocked St. Louis and Kansas City from reimposing mask mandates in indoor public places.

8. Alaska

Alaska slides up to no. 8 in the country, with an average of 45.1 new cases of Covid-19 every day per 100,000 people — a jump of 52% in the past week.

Governor Mike Dunleavy is urging Alaskans to get vaccinated. Only 45.8% of of the state’s population is fully vaccinated, a very small improvement over last week.

9. South Carolina

New to the top 10, South Carolina comes in at no. 9 this week, after recording an average of 44.7 new daily cases per 100,000 people. Only 40.9% of South Carolinians are fully vaccinated.

10. Tennessee

Also new to the top 10 is Tennessee, where only 39.4% of the state’s population is fully vaccinated. The Volunteer State is recording an average of 40.5 new daily cases per 100,000 people.